I took the weekend to catch up on the fantasy goalie landscape by providing you with a quick and dirty look at all 30 NHL teams and their current situations in goal. I made it through 20 teams by Sunday afternoon before I was distracted by … sleep! It’s Monday morning, but what’s a Dirty 30 Weekend without busting through the finish line a little late.
:: PART 6 of 6 ::
Monday @ 2:00p
ST. LOUIS – No other team has a more appealing duo than the Blues. Chris Mason had a second-half run for the ages and he did it by overcoming some very difficult obstacles, including but not limited to the loss of his freakin’ appendix. I don’t think he won a game the first few months of the season, but somehow he was able to shove it all aside and reclaim his game by the All-Star break. After that, it was game after game of 30+ save performances as the Blues squeezed into the playoffs. His first-round performance against Vancouver was admirable and he gained valuable experience from that series.
To bring in Ty Conklin is to secure the backup role with a netminder that also gained valuable experience last year. Conklin is now regarded as a brilliant backup because of his ability to come off the bench and go on some serious streaks. He did it behind Fleury on a budding Penguins team and he can do it behind Mason on a budding Blues team. It’s a perfect situation for Mason to play 55-60 games and Conklin play the rest. The Blues will slide into the playoffs again in one of the final three slots and goaltending will be a major reason why.
TAMPA BAY – As much as I want to see Mike Smith out there skating and taking shots, it has yet to happen (or at least I haven’t heard anything yet). This is a major blow to Tampa’s goaltending for the upcoming season. Fortunately they have brought in some excellent prospects over the last two years in Dustin Tokarski and Jaroslav Janus. So once Smitty is totally healthy and playing again, their future in goal is extremely bright, especially when you throw Riku Helenius into the mix.
Bringing in Antero Niittymaki is a very underrated move and with a chance to maybe repeat his 2006 Olympics performance, I now consider him a breakout candidate. Depending on Smith’s health, Niitty will be the starter and carry the team for most of the year, while Helenius gains valuable experience as his backup. If Smith is healthy in October, he and Niittymaki will still split time, as Smith needs some time to shake off the rust. Ultimately I see a 40-40 split for them both with a few games going to Helenius.
TORONTO – Vesa Toskala is a great goaltender and has the ability to win games for his Maple Leafs. But Jonas Gustavsson is CAPABLE of doing the same. Therefore, I believe it’s not a matter of IF Gustavsson can “take over” as the starter in Toronto, but WHEN he does it. This is not going to happen because Toskala falls off the face of the earth (although it’s possible), this is going to happen because Gustavsson will take full advantage of his opportunities, play with much more confidence than anyone expected and seal the deal with a very solid streak that will last 3-4 weeks. Toskala will not make it an easy task for Gustavsson and will play admirably in stretches, but ultimately the bulkload of the minutes will rest on Jonas’ shoulders. That’s the only way Brian Burke will know what his value is like heading into next summer. Toskala’s value is relatively simple to discern, but nobody knows the future of Gustavsson. That’s the main reason why he’ll play around 50 games and Toskala will play around 35.
VANCOUVER – This is an easy read. Roberto Luongo will play 60 games and Andrew Raycroft will get a few spot starts. For some reason I’m very confident that Cory Schneider will totally out-play Raycroft in the pre-season and in training camp, but start the season in the AHL. But as soon as they have a chance to bring him up, they will take full advantage of Raycroft’s two-way one-way (thanks Angus) deal and give Schneider some games as well. So I see a 60-12-10 split…but Schneider will find a way to grab more minutes than Raycroft. Luongo has to play less because he’s coming off a season where he missed a significant amount of time due to injury.
WASHINGTON – Jose Theodore will probably have a strong start to the season since it’s another contract year for him, but it won’t last very long. At some point, Theodore will falter and struggle to re-gain his play that started off the year. That’s when Simeon Varlamov will come through and claim the starting role. Look for Theodore to either be moved before the trade deadline as the Capitals bring in a more veteran presence in time for the playoffs, or they just sit him on the bench behind Varlamov as the playoffs approach. The odds are good that we will see Michal Neuvirth at some point in the season, but it won’t be for good, unless a serious injury calls for it.
:: PART 5 of 6 ::
Monday @ 10:00a
OTTAWA – Just because Ray Emery is gone doesn’t mean the Senators won’t have to deal with some goalie drama. Of course, this is a much different type of drama…this is injury drama…with the focal point being Pascal Leclaire. I stick to my guns that any elite goalie who injures their meniscus is due for a troubling road to recovery and it has happened with Leclaire. Although he has a chance to play 60 games this season, I think Brian Elliott has proven to the coaching staff that he deserves more starts so he can continue developing his game. Elliott is good for at least 20 games and will surprise many of us with his consistency and poise. It will be a great way to keep Leclaire honest and working hard on rebound control. I am not very confident that Leclaire will stay 100% healthy all year, so expect the unexpected.
PHILADELPHIA –There’s no way I’m going to even try and predict Emery’s season. Internally, I see the whole thing crumbling by the All-Star Break. Just because Emery had a solid season in Russia doesn’t mean his whole life has been turned around. In fact, the stats he posted in Russia are a little deceiving. I say that because his counterpart was Vitaly Kolesnik and he actually posted BETTER stats than Emery. So take it with a grain of salt and be forewarned, because Brian Boucher is one of the best ‘backups’ in the league and will not hesitate to take over the crease with a lot more mental focus and stability than Emery. Don’t be surprised if the workload is close to 50 for Emery and 30 for Boucher. Emery will display plenty of skill, but I see some troubling streaks where his timing and focus are weak.
PHOENIX– There were times in the first half of last season when everyone thought Ilya Bryzgalov was the hidden gem that the Coyotes needed to turn their organization around. But then there were times in the second half that made you wonder what you ever saw in the Mad Russian to begin with. Regardless, Bryzgalov is an extremely solid goalie with a mountain to climb in the Valley of the Sun. I think he’ll respond very well this season and post slightly better statistics over the long run. He will play less games with Jason LaBarbera getting a decent opportunity to provide a young team with solid netminding. Will he be any better of a backup than Al Montoya or Josh Tordjman or Mikael Tellqvist? Not so much. I expect a 60-20 split here with some pretty sweet streaks for Bryzgalov here and there.
PITTSBURGH –I’ve written a lot on my thoughts regarding the Penguins bringing in Brent Johnson and you can read about it here. Basically, they could have provided themselves with a better competitive system by allowing John Curry to be Marc-Andre Fleury’s backup, but instead they resorted to a very solid veteran with some injury issues. To me, it’s missing the point of healthy competition. Fleury has no pressure to perform from another goalie, and as some of you pointed out, that’s when Fleury is at his best (see Ty Conklin). Regardless, Fleury is only going to play with more consistency and post awesome statistics. He will play 62 games, Johnson will play at least ten games and Curry will play around the same, but post much better numbers than Johnson.
SAN JOSE – This might be the first summer I’ve ever heard some people actually question Evgeni Nabokov’s abilities. He was absolutely deplorable in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and was smashed by the play of Jonas Hiller. But this is a new season and a new stage in Nabokov’s career. It’s a contract season, meaning he could be an unrestricted free agent come July 1st if he doesn’t prove to the Sharks organization that he’s capable of carrying this team deep into the playoffs. Since he’s done it before, there’s no reason to believe he can’t again, right? Wrong. The game is not the same and therefore Nabokov’s impact will not be the same. He might crack the 60-game plateau, but he won’t reach 40 wins. Oh, and if the Sharks actually slate Thomas Greiss as Nabokov’s backup without bringing in an “experienced veteran” like all the other teams, I will be totally shocked and jump for joy. Greiss is primed and will impress you in 15-20 starts.
:: PART 4 of 6 ::
Sunday @ 1:30p
MONTREAL – Is there a goalie in the NHL that is being watched more closely than Carey Price? He’s in a pressure-filled market, he’s coming off a shaky season and he’s being pushed by a formidable backup in Jaroslav Halak. Price’s youth also makes him a popular topic within the circle of the media and fans. But what it all comes down to is not how he bounces back, but how he handles a bad game or a few bad goals against. No goalie at his age is flawless, but he’ll need to develop a thicker skin if he expects to be more consistent than last year. If not, Halak is good enough to take over the crease for weeks at a time.
NASHVILLE – The Predators’ revolving goalie crease is well documented. They churned out Tomas Vokoun and brought in Chris Mason, then he was pushed aside in favor of Dan Ellis. And then Pekka Rinne came out of nowhere and widdled away at Ellis’ long-term value by out-shining his counterpart. But lost in all of this turnover is the incredible coaching of Mitch Korn. He’s one of the most underrated goalie coaches in the league and knows how to work with any type of goalie and extrapolate their weak spots and then improve them. I think Ellis was cast under Rinne’s shadow and actually played much better than people realize. Both will be excellent again next year as the Predators will once again be one of those teams right on the cusp of making the playoffs.
*Side note – be aware of Mark Dekanich. He was slated to be Drew MacIntyre’s backup in Milwaukee, but MacIntyre is now part of the Thrashers organization. Dekanich was a relatively unknown AHL goalie but had a terrific rookie season and is now poised to be the Admirals starter.
NEW JERSEY –Martin Brodeur already has a legitimate value boost in fantasy leagues because he’s expected to stay healthy by not playing as many games in the first half of the season. And since I’ve been saying for years that Jeff Frazee is nowhere near ready for an NHL backup role, the Devils were extremely smart to bring in a promising prospect like Yann Danis. Therefore it is safe to say that the days when Brodeur played 75+ games is a thing of the past for good. He’s in a different stage of his career and that means Danis will play close to 20 games overall and post excellent numbers. Danis was quietly very good in small stretches for the Isles last year.
NY ISLANDERS – You would be silly to believe that the Islanders organization feels confident in the status of Rick DiPietro. Unfortunately, when an elite 26-year-old is rounding into form and suffers severe injuries that keep him off the ice an entire year, their future is forever tainted. But at least now their short-term needs are covered. Roloson will do just like he did in Edmonton last year – start off a little slow and then take over the starting role by the All-Star break. No, I don’t expect to see DiPietro play at all t his season. Even if he’s ready by January, with the Olympics and the likelihood of being in serious playoff contention, what’s the point when he is still signed for another TEN FREAKIN’ YEARS?!?
*Side Note – So I think there’s a total of EIGHT goalies that Garth Snow has acquired or moved since the Entry Draft. Real quick, I have Mikko Koskinen, Anders Nilsson, Martin Biron, Dwayne Roloson, Nathan Lawson, Peter Mannino, Yann Danis and Scott Munroe. Actions speak louder than words, eh Mr. Snow? And if Joey MacDonald is moved in the next few days (he’s an UFA) then that will be nine!
NY RANGERS –Probably the easiest read of any team. Henrik Lundqvist rules, Steve Valiquette adequately yet awkwardly takes the loose scraps. I thought Lundqvist wasincredible in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and he did it quietly, as more people were impressed with Hiller in Anaheim. The Olympics will have Lundqvist playing “April” hockey in December and January and overall he’ll play 70+ games asmajor star yet again for the Rangers. I have been extremely impressed with his durability over the last two seasons and it will be more obvious this year with the added workload from the Olympics.
:: PART 3 of 6 ::
Saturday @ 8:30p
DETROIT – This is the first time in what, three or four years that you probably wouldn’t take the Detroit tandem in your draft? Although I’m very confident that Chris Osgood will learn from his mistakes and play with more consistency this season, I feel very little in Jimmy Howard’s first campaign as a legitimate NHL backup. It’s not “cause for concern” in Detroit by any means, but I think they will end up pushing the revolving door a little harder with Howard in order to see what Daniel Larsson is all about. Regardless, expect Osgood to post much better stats in no more than 55 games while Howard plays just above .500 hockey in about 25 games. If there is an injury, I love the idea of Larsson being a breakout candidate.
EDMONTON –Considering the Oilers shed both their goalies on July 1st, they actually ended up with one of the stronger tandems in the league. They went big and bold, bringing in the banished Russian from the Blackhawks for a neat and tidy four-year deal. Now they have a weapon the fire back at Calgary (Kiprusoff), Vancouver (Luongo) and Minnesota (Backstrom) in the Northwest Division. I have a feeling that how Edmonton fares against those three opponents will mean the difference between missing and making the playoffs…but they will make it. Jeff Deslauriers is a perfect compliment to the wily veteran, as he now has a mentor that will show him how to play bigger in the net.
*A side-note here. This is why bringing up a prized AHL prospect as often as possible really pays off. Now Deslauriers has confidence in the backup position because he experienced it for a few games last season. Even though Edmonton took a lot of heat for carrying three goalies, it allowed a prospect to gain valuable experience! That makes Deslauriers an important goalie to watch, as he becomes a legitimate breakout candidate.
FLORIDA –The more I imagine a Tomas Vokoun/Scott Clemmensen duo in Florida, the more I remember the Niklas Backstrom /Dwayne Roloson duo in Minnesota. In fact, I think there are a lot of similarities once you peel back the layers. Both Roloson and Backstrom were older goalies and considered late bloomers. The same could be said for Vokoun and Clemmensen. They both could push each other to perform better and both could be outright starters. Ultimately Vokoun will probably play a few more games than Clemmensen, but won’t be nearly as consistent. Vokoun is a notorious slow starter, but then again it’s still unclear how Clemmensen can play through an October.
LOS ANGELES –Probably my favorite tandem in the NHL right now, Jon Quick and Erik Ersberg are set to have quite a friendly battle for playing time. I think this is a situation where it will be all about who makes the first successful stab. Los Angeles is primed to have a surprisingly hot start to the season, so either goalie could be the benefactor of stronger defense and more potent scoring. Overall, I like Jon Quick’s desperate play and tireless work ethic as the difference in him logging more minutes than Ersberg.
MINNESOTA –By far the biggest question related to an NHL backup lies in the situation regarding Josh Harding. Here is a primed backup that desperately needs some minutes in order to remove the rust collected from being Niklas Backstrom’s backup. But what exactly is Harding’s strategy and where will he ultimately end up? I see some reports that say things along the lines of “they are looking to trade him to a place where he will play…” and if that’s the case, he might be stuck in Minnesota for the first part of the season. When he’s finally traded, Dubielewicz will come up and make a solid backup.
:: PART 2 of 6 ::
Saturday @ 3:30p
CALGARY – The main question surrounding Flames goaltending is not talent level, but compete level. Miikka Kiprusoff is one of the best in the world when he competes hard. But if he starts slow like last season, it will beg the question of whether or not he is committed to a team that desperately needs a stronger work ethic. Regardless of Kiprusoff’s attitude, Curtis McElhinney needs to start winning some games. Again, Curtis has the talent, but his success will rely on how he prepares for his rare starts. Oh, and of course adding Jay Bouwmeester on the blueline sets both goalies up for slightly improved stats.
CHICAGO –Patience is a virtue, so give Cristobal Huet some props for sticking it out through a difficult season last year. He had his share of ups and downs and in the end, he gained valuable experience that will directly benefit this season. But now the Bulin Wall is up in Edmonton and Huet has no pressures from another legit starting goalie to mess with his mojo. It could be a career year for him, which places him high on my list of breakout candidates. Corey Crawford will win the backup role over Antti Niemi, but it won’t mean much. I see a 64-18 split in games played and I expect Crawford to win only six or seven games.
COLORADO– Peter Budaj has one job this offseason. He has to work on focus and rebound control. That is the usual routine for backup goaltenders. I was very annoyed with the decision to bring him back for another year, but I guarantee that Tyler Weiman will out-perform Budaj in training camp. It will be up to the coaching staff to decide who to place behind Craig Anderson. Either way, Colorado has stumbled upon a good situation in goal. Anderson wants to play all 82 games and Budaj wants to prove his worth to other NHL teams and Team Slovakia. I give this team a lot of credit for signing Anderson over Martin Biron. Good move.
COLUMBUS – Most people are confident in a successful sophomore season from Steve Mason. But I am not AS convinced as the rest of you, as I expect to see a few bumpy stretches along the way. This is not to say that Mason is any less of an elite goaltender than last year, it is more that he is human and falls prey to the same circumstances as all other young goalies coming off a break-out year. Whoever manages the goalies’ minutes would be well advised to use Mathieu Garon to their advantage and give him a chance to play more than two games in a row. Not many people will say this, but Columbus definitely has one of the best tandems in the league.
DALLAS –Turco, Turco, where art thou Turco? That is the question all Stars fans are buzzing about this summer. He is the keystone to the defensive turn-around and with Sergei Zubov’s future with the team more bleak than ever before, the pressure is mounting. Fortunately, Dallas was able to make amends for the whole Jonas Gustavsson ordeal by bringing in Alex Auld, who will surely become another fan favorite. A big goalie in Big D is just what the team needs to bring some more confidence to the less-experienced defensemen. I like Auld’s game and feel he will play very well for the Stars. Also keep your eye on Richard Bachman with the Texas Stars, as he is a prized prospect worth noting.
:: PART 1 of 6 ::
Friday @ 4:45p
ANAHEIM – I’ve seen a TON of Jonas Hiller vs. JS Giguere questions over the last week. This will most likely be my topic for School of Block on Monday, as everyone is curious who will play more and who will be the starter. I can tell you right now that Hiller is going to play at least 50 games next year. Giguere has a behemoth contract and needs to play as much as possible, but his game is slowly slipping away, while Hiller’s is rapidly rising. What can Giguere do without Francois Allaire to refine his game before mid-September and who is his current goalie coach?
ATLANTA –The Thrashers have three goalies under contract and all of them are clinging to one-year deals. Will Ondrej Pavelec even entertain the notion of starting with the Chicago Wolves? If they are intending to keep Johan Hedberg around as a veteran backup, or is he going to be traded in order to give Pavelec what he wants? Either way, Kari Lehtonen, if healthy, will have the best statistical year of his career. I think he will be extremely close to 30 wins and stay relatively healthy by playing 65-70 games and post an above .500 win percentage.
BOSTON –Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask’s contracts are structured in such a way that the Bruins can entertain a smooth and steady role exchange in three more seasons. Thomas makes $6 mil the next two years and then makes $5 mil in the 2011-12 season and then $3 mil in the final year. Rask is a RFA after this season, which ends his bonus-laden entry level contract. I see Rask easily taking the backup role this year from Dany Sabourin and never looking back. Each year his value (and minutes) will steadily rise and after two seasons as a blossoming backup, he will have the chance to dethrone Thomas, who will be writing the final chapter of a very storied career. I see a 65-17 split in workload for the upcoming season and Rask’s first career shutout will comes against the Maple Leafs (ha!).
BUFFALO –Ryan Miller is expected to have a “bounce-back” season and I feel he will respond in fine fashion. In fact, I would hardly consider Miller’s woes last season as something directly related to his game. I think there were a lot of outside forces and influences affecting his actual stats. That being said, expect Miller to be one of the season’s top workhorses, playing around 70 games. Lalime will be inconsistent as the backup because he is a streaky goalie that needs consistent minutes in order to perform at his best. Jhonas Enroth is still considered a top-flight prospect in my books but has slipped just slightly because of his smaller frame. Regardless, he is right in the middle of his entry-level contract, so Buffalo will be content to ride out Lalime’s contract while letting Enroth gain more AHL experience.
CAROLINA– This is probably one of the easiest situations to read. Cam Ward was incredible in the second half of last season and has high expectations to deliver similar results this season. Unlike previous scouting reports, you’ll notice the word consistent a lot more. Thanks to the hard work of Tom Barrasso, Ward is going to stay solid and continue to post great long-term numbers. There will be ups and downs, but nothing that should lead you to believe Michael Leighton is going to play 25 games. I see Ward starting around 62 total and Leighton getting the rest. Beware, Ward always seems to start off a little slow, but post his strongest months when it matters, in February and March.
The Goalie Guild 