Hello, this is Justin, the founder of The Goalie Guild and the one responsible for unleashing all of the content found behind our doors. I just wanted to take a few minutes to explain to you what Version 2.0 is all about. Many of you have expressed your excitement for what’s coming up, even though we’ve been in a shroud of secrecy for most of the summer.

First of all, the overall site aesthetics will be much more eye-appealing and simple. The new layout is clean, so things won’t seem nearly as cluttered as it is now. In fact, if you want a sneak peek at what platform the revised Guild websites are using, check out www.theavalancheguild.com!

If you’ve been to this website before, you know all about the unique goaltending insight and analysis we’ve been providing the hockey community for over two years. Although this website didn’t officially launch until February 1st, it is the fourth website in The Hockey Guild series and easily considered as my personal favorite and my self-proclaimed brain child. I’ve put a lot of effort and time into developing and designing the website with my own two hands and in just a few short months I’m proud to say it’s time to take the next step.

My passion for goaltending is truly entering a new stage this season and I’m more than ready to embrace it. I am committed to helping others understand the position better through answering questions and providing fantasy and goalie prospect insight. I am also looking forward to building an extensive library of goalie scouting charts and analysis for those that find value within them. Our long-term goals are to develop a hardcore goalie resource developed by goalies, for goalies. 

Yes, it will be a lot of hard work. But this is how I learn about the position and continue to improve my own game. Just a few years removed from college hockey, I’m currently a private goalie coach, a scout, a competitive player and a student of the game. I don’t see this ever changing, either. (Also, if you want to get to know me a little better, check out the ABOUT US page…)

We hope that you enjoy our unique writing style and brand that we’ve internally developed over the last two years. The Goalie Guild is an extension of The Hockey Guild, which does things very differently here in Colorado. We have a great working relationship with the National Hockey League, Hockey Fights Cancer and the Colorado Avalanche thanks to the unique and interactive on and off-ice events and programs we host through other Guild websites.

With that being said, I’m very excited to take The Goalie Guild in that direction by tying in a number of interactive aspects to the new version as well.

The new version will be comprised of two main aspects – the free version and the membership version. Yes, we are now offering exclusive and unique MEMBERSHIPS for the upcoming season. Now when I say that word, a lot of those “social media experts” will cringe and say that’s a terrible idea because it could result in the loss of a large percentage of overall viewership. Our response to that?

We’ll always keep it free, but we can also provide something more for the loyal members!

Remember the sole purpose for our existance - to enhance your understanding of the goaltending position. As a result, we will continue to provide a completely ad-free website, while still growing. In order to grow, we will now provide valuable memberships for the loyal goalie souls as well.

One unique aspect of our website is the complete lack of obnoxious, flickering banner ads. We are totally free from all non-hockey related web or video advertisements and we use all of our space strictly for companies that sponsor one of our contests or events, or if we feel like promoting a goaltending or NHL-related promotion. Truth be told, all that you will find on our website is PURE. GOALTENDING. ANALYSIS.

The first thing we want to clarify is that there will be plenty of content available for free on a weekly basis. We have columns and features that have been around for years, none more vital than School of Block, which appears on DobberHockey.com every Monday afternoon, so there’s plenty of ways to get some of our goalie insight.

There will also be free weekly downloads, including our trademark Scouting Charts, Dirty 30 Weekend Updates and more. You also have the ability to join our unique games and contests for prizes, and of course all of our goalie mask and equipment reviews, previews and interviews. We also plan on adding exclusive videos, interviews, radio programs and more, all available for free.

But for anyone that wants to become an exclusive and honorary member, they will receive even more insight and analysis, and get it before anyone else in a manner that is easy to read and takes absolutely no effort. They will also receive things like Guild apparel and small gifts that give them the recognition they deserve for supporting our ad-free venture. The memberships are dirt-cheap and come in three different varieties – monthly, seasonal and annual.

We are not going to release all of the membership information and packages just yet … but we promise they are extremely affordable, very valuable and quite entertaining. We also plan on giving away tons and tons of different types of memberships to goalies across the globe through the rest of the summer, so you can always try and win a membership as well!

Some of our upcoming projects include personal mailbag features, more player profiles and even a monthly goaltending e-magazine, with great analysis and articles on all types of goaltending topics. Our relationships with companies like Masked Marvel helmets, Bandits Goalie Schools, Airxess, Stomp, etc means you will learn a lot about the different aspects behind equipment and technique as well.

In a sense, we are doing exactly what our mission statement says – advancing and enhancing the goaltending community through a wide variety of interactive and insightful features and content. If you take some time to cruise around this site and see just all of the features we’ve developed in a few short months, you can just imagine what we’ll have in store for members as the 2009-10 season approaches.

I want to personally thank each and every person that has visited this website in order to learn more about the position, the prospects and the philosophy behind the most amazing athlete in all of sports – the goaltender. We hope you have enjoyed this website as much as we have enjoyed creating it and look for Version 2.0 next week!!!

I’m confident Hiller will play many more games than Giguere this season and I know what kind of rotation the coaching staff will implement as well. I love to go off on tangents related to technique and mental toughness, but my goal this week is to do that, but keep it focused and to the point. It’s a very easy prognosis to make, but only after you understand Hiller’s outstanding technique and why Giguere’s technique has caused his game to slowly decline.

HILLER – Jonas is already one of the best butterfly goalies in the NHL because of his AGILITY. By agility, I mean his ability to move in and out of the butterfly in all different areas with ease. The main source for his amazing agility stems from two things- his foot speed and his core strength. He doesn’t make saves or move around with just his legs, he actually moves with his core muscles and the legs follow. Powerful lateral pushes stem from a strong core.

So the stronger stomach and hips a goalie has, the more powerful that push becomes. In fact, more pro goalies are quickly learning that the hips and stomach area is where they MUST generate more power in order to move even faster and stronger side to side. Nothing else needs to be said about this … it’s an absolute fact. Therefore, when you combine Hiller’s hand and foot speed along with his ability to recover in a sharp, quick and balanced manner, it gives him that “smooth as glass” look that only the most elite NHL goalies have (Fleury, Luongo, etc.)

What does his technique tell me? Well, Hiller is much more mobile and efficient after making the first save. He doesn’t dive and flop around like Tim Thomas or Peter Budaj, he actually pushes laterally in the butterfly and slides to either side with his shoulders square to the shooter. He takes away the top portion of the net in a fashion that allows him to stay on his knees, ready to bounce up into a normal stance or stay in the tight butterfly at the top of his crease. There is very little desperation in his game and his movements make him appear extremely confident in all areas.

GIGUERE – J.S. is the type of goaltender that thrives on body positioning and very little movement. He will rarely combine a string of movements like Hiller to make a save and control the rebound. Instead, Giguere will find a spot at the top of his crease, make one strong push, and then plant himself there like a giant brick. Then it’s just a matter of taking away holes and tightening up. Unfortunately, this blocking style doesn’t allow the goalie to have a reactionary aspect to his game. So once a rebound is left there for the taking, Giguere is not as smooth or quick to get in position for the second or third save. His feet are slower and don’t move as easily, whereas Hiller seems “lighter” on his toes.

Giguere is still a very solid goaltender who knows how to read plays better than most goalies in the league. He is experienced and has been through a lot in his career, especially in Anaheim. There is not another goalie out there that has a style like Giguere’s, which makes him unique and entertaining and successful and valuable to all teams.

But the game changes on an annual basis and a goalie must constantly refine his game in order to be one of the best. Giguere’s blocking style doesn’t allow him to move as easily after making the first save, which means he has to apply more energy in different areas in order to have the type of secondary movements or agility that Hiller can accomplish with ease.*

And now for the simplification and application of it all:

Giguere’s style is out-dated**. Hiller’s is more advanced and more suited for 2010 hockey. Giguere’s rebound control has suffered over the last two seasons as a direct result of his strict “blocking” style and his inability to adjust or refine that style over the last two years. But Hiller’s style has blossomed in just a few short seasons because there is more efficiency in the technique that must be used to succeed at this level.

Looking just at their stats, you’ll never be able to prove what I just explained. I’ve already tried. Giguere’s statistics were very solid two seasons ago, but that won’t show us anything about his rebound control problems over the last two years. Ultimately, all you can do is trust me when I say Hiller has improved over the last two years and Giguere has significantly slowed down as a direct result of technique, not talent.

This brings us to the meat of the class; the fantasy diagnosis. There is considerable evidence to support me when I say Hiller will easily be the starting goalie on Opening Night. Not only was his playoff run more than enough to warrant this, but Anaheim is known to ride the hot goaltender. And since Hiller has been “hot” since about mid-March, the off-season won’t act as a penalty towards him and he will deservingly be considered the starter.

Now everyone knows Giguere’s beefy contract forces the Ducks to play him as much as possible. I don’t need to discuss those reasons here. Therefore, expect Randy Carlyle to use the code phrases “the best goalie will play…” and that they will be “riding the hot goalie…” all season long. This is a smart move for a number of reasons.

First of all, there’s now a “healthy competition” between the two goalies. Secondly, there are no guarantees for either one of them, so neither will become complacent by expecting to play every game. Both know that they are only a string of two or three wins before they get handed the reins for a longer stretch of time. Finally, this forces both goalies to compete at the highest level, game in and game out. Regardless of their personal friendship, both will want to out-perform the other and prove they should be the go-to guy on a team that can go deep in the playoffs.

There are a few things I want to point out before revealing the bottom line. First of all, remember that they both turned into excellent netminders because of their hard work with Francois Allaire. Now that Allaire is gone, they both have to help each other out by working on the butterfly aspects that they developed with Allaire. I’m not sure who their new goalie coach will be, but that will have a direct impact on their overall numbers. Will Giguere be open to refining or changing some aspects of his blocking style? Will he embrace a new coach and have a good attitude? These are important questions to ask and ones that I wish I had the answer for.

Secondly, Hiller’s age is important to discuss. At 27 years old, he’s far from a “youngster” in the league. Even though he’s only been playing for two seasons, he has more experience than most goalies his age. His experiences playing in Switzerland were a major reason why his performance in the playoffs seemed so impressive. So don’t treat Hiller like a 22 or 23-year old superstar. He is a legitimate elite goalie rounding into top form at the right time.

Finally, and probably of least importance by a mile, is the type of leg pads they wear. Giguere likes those beyond-stiff Reebok Premiere III pads, whereas Hiller wears the new Koho 700 pads. Why in the world would I bring this up? Rebound control! Reebok pads give up juicy rebounds, traditional pads deaden shots. Just watch this video to see what makes Hiller’s pads a lot more beneficial to his hybrid butterfly style:

So the bottom line from a fantasy perspective is this: Hiller will start close to 55 games and perform admirably well and post great stats. He’ll have some shutouts along the way and should remain fairly consistent in front of a solid defense. Giguere will play close to 30 games and post solid statistics, but will post a save percentage around .912 and at no point will he be able to re-claim the starting job from Hiller. I see a lot of issues coming up with Giguere’s focus, his rebound control and his overall ability.

*Keep an eye on their save percentage while shorthanded. This will prove a lot about their ability to make saves by using solid secondary movements.

**I don’t mean this in such a negative way. He is obviously one of the better goalies in the league, but I feel that his style is not as well-suited for the game in 2010 as Hiller’s will be.

So the point I was making by that line is that compared to Hiller, he’s a little out-dated. To the rest of the league, he’s still obviously capable of being one of the best in the game.

:: PART 6 of 6 ::
Monday @ 2:00p

ST. LOUIS - No other team has a more appealing duo than the Blues. Chris Mason had a second-half run for the ages and he did it by overcoming some very difficult obstacles, including but not limited to the loss of his freakin’ appendix. I don’t think he won a game the first few months of the season, but somehow he was able to shove it all aside and reclaim his game by the All-Star break. After that, it was game after game of 30+ save performances as the Blues squeezed into the playoffs. His first-round performance against Vancouver was admirable and he gained valuable experience from that series.

To bring in Ty Conklin is to secure the backup role with a netminder that also gained valuable experience last year. Conklin is now regarded as a brilliant backup because of his ability to come off the bench and go on some serious streaks. He did it behind Fleury on a budding Penguins team and he can do it behind Mason on a budding Blues team. It’s a perfect situation for Mason to play 55-60 games and Conklin play the rest. The Blues will slide into the playoffs again in one of the final three slots and goaltending will be a major reason why.

TAMPA BAY - As much as I want to see Mike Smith out there skating and taking shots, it has yet to happen (or at least I haven’t heard anything yet). This is a major blow to Tampa’s goaltending for the upcoming season. Fortunately they have brought in some excellent prospects over the last two years in Dustin Tokarski and Jaroslav Janus. So once Smitty is totally healthy and playing again, their future in goal is extremely bright, especially when you throw Riku Helenius into the mix.

 Bringing in Antero Niittymaki is a very underrated move and with a chance to maybe repeat his 2006 Olympics performance, I now consider him a breakout candidate. Depending on Smith’s health, Niitty will be the starter and carry the team for most of the year, while Helenius gains valuable experience as his backup. If Smith is healthy in October, he and Niittymaki will still split time, as Smith needs some time to shake off the rust. Ultimately I see a 40-40 split for them both with a few games going to Helenius.

TORONTO - Vesa Toskala is a great goaltender and has the ability to win games for his Maple Leafs. But Jonas Gustavsson is CAPABLE of doing the same. Therefore, I believe it’s not a matter of IF Gustavsson can “take over” as the starter in Toronto, but WHEN he does it. This is not going to happen because Toskala falls off the face of the earth (although it’s possible), this is going to happen because Gustavsson will take full advantage of his opportunities, play with much more confidence than anyone expected and seal the deal with a very solid streak that will last 3-4 weeks. Toskala will not make it an easy task for Gustavsson and will play admirably in stretches, but ultimately the bulkload of the minutes will rest on Jonas’ shoulders. That’s the only way Brian Burke will know what his value is like heading into next summer. Toskala’s value is relatively simple to discern, but nobody knows the future of Gustavsson. That’s the main reason why he’ll play around 50 games and Toskala will play around 35.

VANCOUVER - This is an easy read. Roberto Luongo will play 60 games and Andrew Raycroft will get a few spot starts. For some reason I’m very confident that Cory Schneider will totally out-play Raycroft in the pre-season and in training camp, but start the season in the AHL. But as soon as they have a chance to bring him up, they will take full advantage of Raycroft’s two-way one-way (thanks Angus) deal and give Schneider some games as well. So I see a 60-12-10 split…but Schneider will find a way to grab more minutes than Raycroft. Luongo has to play less because he’s coming off a season where he missed a significant amount of time due to injury.

WASHINGTON -  Jose Theodore will probably have a strong start to the season since it’s another contract year for him, but it won’t last very long. At some point, Theodore will falter and struggle to re-gain his play that started off the year. That’s when Simeon Varlamov will come through and claim the starting role. Look for Theodore to either be moved before the trade deadline as the Capitals bring in a more veteran presence in time for the playoffs, or they just sit him on the bench behind Varlamov as the playoffs approach. The odds are good that we will see Michal Neuvirth at some point in the season, but it won’t be for good, unless a serious injury calls for it.

:: PART 5 of 6 ::
Monday @ 10:00a

OTTAWA - Just because Ray Emery is gone doesn’t mean the Senators won’t have to deal with some goalie drama. Of course, this is a much different type of drama…this is injury drama…with the focal point being Pascal Leclaire. I stick to my guns that any elite goalie who injures their meniscus is due for a troubling road to recovery and it has happened with Leclaire. Although he has a chance to play 60 games this season, I think Brian Elliott has proven to the coaching staff that he deserves more starts so he can continue developing his game. Elliott is good for at least 20 games and will surprise many of us with his consistency and poise. It will be a great way to keep Leclaire honest and working hard on rebound control. I am not very confident that Leclaire will stay 100% healthy all year, so expect the unexpected.

PHILADELPHIA -There’s no way I’m going to even try and predict Emery’s season. Internally, I see the whole thing crumbling by the All-Star Break. Just because Emery had a solid season in Russia doesn’t mean his whole life has been turned around. In fact, the stats he posted in Russia are a little deceiving. I say that because his counterpart was Vitaly Kolesnik and he actually posted BETTER stats than Emery. So take it with a grain of salt and be forewarned, because Brian Boucher is one of the best ‘backups’ in the league and will not hesitate to take over the crease with a lot more mental focus and stability than Emery. Don’t be surprised if the workload is close to 50 for Emery and 30 for Boucher. Emery will display plenty of skill, but I see some troubling streaks where his timing and focus are weak.

PHOENIX- There were times in the first half of last season when everyone thought Ilya Bryzgalov was the hidden gem that the Coyotes needed to turn their organization around. But then there were times in the second half that made you wonder what you ever saw in the Mad Russian to begin with. Regardless, Bryzgalov is an extremely solid goalie with a mountain to climb in the Valley of the Sun. I think he’ll respond very well this season and post slightly better statistics over the long run. He will play less games with Jason LaBarbera getting a decent opportunity to provide a young team with solid netminding. Will he be any better of a backup than Al Montoya or Josh Tordjman or Mikael Tellqvist? Not so much. I expect a 60-20 split here with some pretty sweet streaks for Bryzgalov here and there.

PITTSBURGH -I’ve written a lot on my thoughts regarding the Penguins bringing in Brent Johnson and you can read about it here. Basically, they could have provided themselves with a better competitive system by allowing John Curry to be Marc-Andre Fleury’s backup, but instead they resorted to a very solid veteran with some injury issues. To me, it’s missing the point of healthy competition. Fleury has no pressure to perform from another goalie, and as some of you pointed out, that’s when Fleury is at his best (see Ty Conklin). Regardless, Fleury is only going to play with more consistency and post awesome statistics. He will play 62 games, Johnson will play at least ten games and Curry will play around the same, but post much better numbers than Johnson.

SAN JOSE – This might be the first summer I’ve ever heard some people actually question Evgeni Nabokov’s abilities. He was absolutely deplorable in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and was smashed by the play of Jonas Hiller. But this is a new season and a new stage in Nabokov’s career. It’s a contract season, meaning he could be an unrestricted free agent come July 1st if he doesn’t prove to the Sharks organization that he’s capable of carrying this team deep into the playoffs. Since he’s done it before, there’s no reason to believe he can’t again, right? Wrong. The game is not the same and therefore Nabokov’s impact will not be the same. He might crack the 60-game plateau, but he won’t reach 40 wins. Oh, and if the Sharks actually slate Thomas Greiss as Nabokov’s backup without bringing in an “experienced veteran” like all the other teams, I will be totally shocked and jump for joy. Greiss is primed and will impress you in 15-20 starts.

:: PART 4 of 6 ::
Sunday @ 1:30p

MONTREAL - Is there a goalie in the NHL that is being watched more closely than Carey Price? He’s in a pressure-filled market, he’s coming off a shaky season and he’s being pushed by a formidable backup in Jaroslav Halak. Price’s youth also makes him a popular topic within the circle of the media and fans. But what it all comes down to is not how he bounces back, but how he handles a bad game or a few bad goals against. No goalie at his age is flawless, but he’ll need to develop a thicker skin if he expects to be more consistent than last year. If not, Halak is good enough to take over the crease for weeks at a time.

NASHVILLE - The Predators’ revolving goalie crease is well documented. They churned out Tomas Vokoun and brought in Chris Mason, then he was pushed aside in favor of Dan Ellis. And then Pekka Rinne came out of nowhere and widdled away at Ellis’ long-term value by out-shining his counterpart. But lost in all of this turnover is the incredible coaching of Mitch Korn. He’s one of the most underrated goalie coaches in the league and knows how to work with any type of goalie and extrapolate their weak spots and then improve them. I think Ellis was cast under Rinne’s shadow and actually played much better than people realize. Both will be excellent again next year as the Predators will once again be one of those teams right on the cusp of making the playoffs.

*Side note – be aware of Mark Dekanich. He was slated to be Drew MacIntyre’s backup in Milwaukee, but MacIntyre is now part of the Thrashers organization. Dekanich was a relatively unknown AHL goalie but had a terrific rookie season and is now poised to be the Admirals starter.

NEW JERSEY -Martin Brodeur already has a legitimate value boost in fantasy leagues because he’s expected to stay healthy by not playing as many games in the first half of the season. And since I’ve been saying for years that Jeff Frazee is nowhere near ready for an NHL backup role, the Devils were extremely smart to bring in a promising prospect like Yann Danis. Therefore it is safe to say that the days when Brodeur played 75+ games is a thing of the past for good. He’s in a different stage of his career and that means Danis will play close to 20 games overall and post excellent numbers. Danis was quietly very good in small stretches for the Isles last year.

NY ISLANDERS - You would be silly to believe that the Islanders organization feels confident in the status of Rick DiPietro. Unfortunately, when an elite 26-year-old is rounding into form and suffers severe injuries that keep him off the ice an entire year, their future is forever tainted. But at least now their short-term needs are covered. Roloson will do just like he did in Edmonton last year – start off a little slow and then take over the starting role by the All-Star break. No, I don’t expect to see DiPietro play at all t his season. Even if he’s ready by January, with the Olympics and the likelihood of being in serious playoff contention, what’s the point when he is still signed for another TEN FREAKIN’ YEARS?!?

*Side Note - So I think there’s a total of EIGHT goalies that Garth Snow has acquired or moved since the Entry Draft. Real quick, I have Mikko Koskinen, Anders Nilsson, Martin Biron, Dwayne Roloson, Nathan Lawson, Peter Mannino, Yann Danis and Scott Munroe. Actions speak louder than words, eh Mr. Snow? And if Joey MacDonald is moved in the next few days (he’s an UFA) then that will be nine!

NY RANGERS -Probably the easiest read of any team. Henrik Lundqvist rules, Steve Valiquette adequately yet awkwardly takes the loose scraps. I thought Lundqvist wasincredible in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and he did it quietly, as more people were impressed with Hiller in Anaheim. The Olympics will have Lundqvist playing “April” hockey in December and January and overall he’ll play 70+ games asmajor star yet again for the Rangers. I have been extremely impressed with his durability over the last two seasons and it will be more obvious this year with the added workload from the Olympics.

:: PART 3 of 6 ::
Saturday @ 8:30p

DETROIT - This is the first time in what, three or four years that you probably wouldn’t take the Detroit tandem in your draft? Although I’m very confident that Chris Osgood will learn from his mistakes and play with more consistency this season, I feel very little in Jimmy Howard’s first campaign as a legitimate NHL backup. It’s not “cause for concern” in Detroit by any means, but I think they will end up pushing the revolving door a little harder with Howard in order to see what Daniel Larsson is all about. Regardless, expect Osgood to post much better stats in no more than 55 games while Howard plays just above .500 hockey in about 25 games. If there is an injury, I love the idea of Larsson being a breakout candidate.

EDMONTON -Considering the Oilers shed both their goalies on July 1st, they actually ended up with one of the stronger tandems in the league. They went big and bold, bringing in the banished Russian from the Blackhawks for a neat and tidy four-year deal. Now they have a weapon the fire back at Calgary (Kiprusoff), Vancouver (Luongo) and Minnesota (Backstrom) in the Northwest Division. I have a feeling that how Edmonton fares against those three opponents will mean the difference between missing and making the playoffs…but they will make it. Jeff Deslauriers is a perfect compliment to the wily veteran, as he now has a mentor that will show him how to play bigger in the net.

*A side-note here. This is why bringing up a prized AHL prospect as often as possible really pays off. Now Deslauriers has confidence in the backup position because he experienced it for a few games last season. Even though Edmonton took a lot of heat for carrying three goalies, it allowed a prospect to gain valuable experience! That makes Deslauriers an important goalie to watch, as he becomes a legitimate breakout candidate.

FLORIDA -The more I imagine a Tomas Vokoun/Scott Clemmensen duo in Florida, the more I remember the Niklas Backstrom /Dwayne Roloson duo in Minnesota. In fact, I think there are a lot of similarities once you peel back the layers. Both Roloson and Backstrom were older goalies and considered late bloomers. The same could be said for Vokoun and Clemmensen. They both could push each other to perform better and both could be outright starters. Ultimately Vokoun will probably play a few more games than Clemmensen, but won’t be nearly as consistent. Vokoun is a notorious slow starter, but then again it’s still unclear how Clemmensen can play through an October.

LOS ANGELES -Probably my favorite tandem in the NHL right now, Jon Quick and Erik Ersberg are set to have quite a friendly battle for playing time. I think this is a situation where it will be all about who makes the first successful stab. Los Angeles is primed to have a surprisingly hot start to the season, so either goalie could be the benefactor of stronger defense and more potent scoring. Overall, I like Jon Quick’s desperate play and tireless work ethic as the difference in him logging more minutes than Ersberg.

MINNESOTA -By far the biggest question related to an NHL backup lies in the situation regarding Josh Harding. Here is a primed backup that desperately needs some minutes in order to remove the rust collected from being Niklas Backstrom’s backup. But what exactly is Harding’s strategy and where will he ultimately end up? I see some reports that say things along the lines of “they are looking to trade him to a place where he will play…” and if that’s the case, he might be stuck in Minnesota for the first part of the season. When he’s finally traded, Dubielewicz will come up and make a solid backup. 

:: PART 2 of 6 ::
Saturday @ 3:30p

CALGARY – The main question surrounding Flames goaltending is not talent level, but compete level. Miikka Kiprusoff is one of the best in the world when he competes hard. But if he starts slow like last season, it will beg the question of whether or not he is committed to a team that desperately needs a stronger work ethic. Regardless of Kiprusoff’s attitude, Curtis McElhinney needs to start winning some games. Again, Curtis has the talent, but his success will rely on how he prepares for his rare starts. Oh, and of course adding Jay Bouwmeester on the blueline sets both goalies up for slightly improved stats.

CHICAGO -Patience is a virtue, so give Cristobal Huet some props for sticking it out through a difficult season last year. He had his share of ups and downs and in the end, he gained valuable experience that will directly benefit this season. But now the Bulin Wall is up in Edmonton and Huet has no pressures from another legit starting goalie to mess with his mojo. It could be a career year for him, which places him high on my list of breakout candidates. Corey Crawford will win the backup role over Antti Niemi, but it won’t mean much. I see a 64-18 split in games played and I expect Crawford to win only six or seven games.

COLORADO- Peter Budaj has one job this offseason. He has to work on focus and rebound control. That is the usual routine for backup goaltenders. I was very annoyed with the decision to bring him back for another year, but I guarantee that Tyler Weiman will out-perform Budaj in training camp. It will be up to the coaching staff to decide who to place behind Craig Anderson. Either way, Colorado has stumbled upon a good situation in goal. Anderson wants to play all 82 games and Budaj wants to prove his worth to other NHL teams and Team Slovakia. I give this team a lot of credit for signing Anderson over Martin Biron. Good move.

COLUMBUS – Most people are confident in a successful sophomore season from Steve Mason. But I am not AS convinced as the rest of you, as I expect to see a few bumpy stretches along the way. This is not to say that Mason is any less of an elite goaltender than last year, it is more that he is human and falls prey to the same circumstances as all other young goalies coming off a break-out year. Whoever manages the goalies’ minutes would be well advised to use Mathieu Garon to their advantage and give him a chance to play more than two games in a row. Not many people will say this, but Columbus definitely has one of the best tandems in the league.

DALLAS -Turco, Turco, where art thou Turco? That is the question all Stars fans are buzzing about this summer. He is the keystone to the defensive turn-around and with Sergei Zubov’s future with the team more bleak than ever before, the pressure is mounting. Fortunately, Dallas was able to make amends for the whole Jonas Gustavsson ordeal by bringing in Alex Auld, who will surely become another fan favorite. A big goalie in Big D is just what the team needs to bring some more confidence to the less-experienced defensemen. I like Auld’s game and feel he will play very well for the Stars. Also keep your eye on Richard Bachman with the Texas Stars, as he is a prized prospect worth noting.

:: PART 1 of 6 ::
Friday @ 4:45p

ANAHEIM – I’ve seen a TON of Jonas Hiller vs. JS Giguere questions over the last week. This will most likely be my topic for School of Block on Monday, as everyone is curious who will play more and who will be the starter. I can tell you right now that Hiller is going to play at least 50 games next year. Giguere has a behemoth contract and needs to play as much as possible, but his game is slowly slipping away, while Hiller’s is rapidly rising. What can Giguere do without Francois Allaire to refine his game before mid-September and who is his current goalie coach?

ATLANTA -The Thrashers have three goalies under contract and all of them are clinging to one-year deals. Will Ondrej Pavelec even entertain the notion of starting with the Chicago Wolves? If they are intending to keep Johan Hedberg around as a veteran backup, or is he going to be traded in order to give Pavelec what he wants? Either way, Kari Lehtonen, if healthy, will have the best statistical year of his career. I think he will be extremely close to 30 wins and stay relatively healthy by playing 65-70 games and post an above .500 win percentage. 

BOSTON -Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask’s contracts are structured in such a way that the Bruins can entertain a smooth and steady role exchange in three more seasons. Thomas makes $6 mil the next two years and then makes $5 mil in the 2011-12 season and then $3 mil in the final year. Rask is a RFA after this season, which ends his bonus-laden entry level contract. I see Rask easily taking the backup role this year from Dany Sabourin and never looking back. Each year his value (and minutes) will steadily rise and after two seasons as a blossoming backup, he will have the chance to dethrone Thomas, who will be writing the final chapter of a very storied career. I see a 65-17 split in workload for the upcoming season and Rask’s first career shutout will comes against the Maple Leafs (ha!).

BUFFALO -Ryan Miller is expected to have a ”bounce-back” season and I feel he will respond in fine fashion. In fact, I would hardly consider Miller’s woes last season as something directly related to his game. I think there were a lot of outside forces and influences affecting his actual stats. That being said, expect Miller to be one of the season’s top workhorses, playing around 70 games. Lalime will be inconsistent as the backup because he is a streaky goalie that needs consistent minutes in order to perform at his best. Jhonas Enroth is still considered a top-flight prospect in my books but has slipped just slightly because of his smaller frame. Regardless, he is right in the middle of his entry-level contract, so Buffalo will be content to ride out Lalime’s contract while letting Enroth gain more AHL experience.

CAROLINA- This is probably one of the easiest situations to read. Cam Ward was incredible in the second half of last season and has high expectations to deliver similar results this season. Unlike previous scouting reports, you’ll notice the word consistent a lot more. Thanks to the hard work of Tom Barrasso, Ward is going to stay solid and continue to post great long-term numbers. There will be ups and downs, but nothing that should lead you to believe Michael Leighton is going to play 25 games. I see Ward starting around 62 total and Leighton getting the rest. Beware, Ward always seems to start off a little slow, but post his strongest months when it matters, in February and March.

The custom mask is a W10, which is the latest line of masks created by a company out of Finland called Wall Active.

Check out their website, because they have some very unique masks, including one that uses a visor instead of a regular cage. It’s wild, wild stuff.

When you check out Backstrom’s new mask, also look down and check out the new Brian’s Zero-G gear. This line is pretty exciting, it looks to be the lightest and most customized gear they’ve ever produced. After seeing Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin decked out in Brian’s gear, then a number of goalies using the new Zero-G blocker late in the season, you’ll probably see even more to start next season.

How should a fantasy GM weigh skill level (talent & ability) versus opportunity? This is a great question (WTG, Sentium) and an interesting one because it’s completely unique to all fantasy managers. Every goalie is different and every team has different dynamics when it comes to dishing out the minutes played. So what, exactly, should fantasy managers focus on in order to find the goalie poised to be the next Hiller or Clemmensen? Which one matters more?

The best way to break this down is to separate the question into two parts. First, we have skill level, which can be represented by everything from technique and physical features to mental strength. Then there’s opportunity, which includes the infinite spectrum of situations that exist when it comes to a goalie’s increased playing time and value.

But before you can compare the two parts to find your breakout goalie, you’ll need to know the value of each part.

PART 1 – SKILL LEVEL
Skill level should be further broken down into its own two parts; mental toughness and technique or talent level.

For mental toughness, first you need to discern how the goalie generally competes. Ask yourself these questions: is he a big-save goalie? Has he stolen games at the AHL or CHL level? Does he have a history of elevating his game right before the playoffs? Does he even have any playoff success at all in his entire career? Basically, you just want to find out if he’s been through some pressure-filled situations before. If so, how did he perform?*

As you know, mental toughness can mean so many different things and touch on so many different psychological aspects. But for the topic at hand, you should focus mainly on confidence. That one word means so much to a pro goaltender’s abilities, and if you don’t know what I mean, I’ll quickly explain it through a real-life example.

Peter Budaj was primed to be a break-out goalie last season. With Jose Theodore heading to Washington and Andrew Raycroft just trying to salvage his NHL career for one more season, all Budaj had to do was put together a strong training camp and then balloon into the undisputed starter by the end of October.

But that didn’t even come close to happening. And the sole reason for this stemmed from a lack of confidence. Too many bad-angle goals led to really inconsistent play and his whole game, and thus the team, fell apart. When a goalie posts a 7-2 shootout record through March, but constantly allows bad-angle goals, there’s a real confidence issue.**

The other part, technique and talent level, is as simple as it gets. In fact, my new scouting charts are perfect for this type of thing (check out the forums or http://thegoalieguild.com/charts). Skill should be more or less be weighed by status. Is there an aspect of their game that you would consider to be of elite status? Or is it just a mild strength?

PART 2 – OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity more or less means the situation a prospect or backup currently faces with their counterpart. For example, what kind of opportunity does Alex Auld have in Dallas backing up Marty Turco? Basically, you just want to analyze whether or not he is likely to receive more or less playing time than originally expected.

With the myriad of situations that present itself currently to all NHL teams, there are a number of interesting ones that could call for a break-out. Take Vancouver, for example. If Roberto Luongo were to miss a serious amount of time, do you really think the Canucks would have Andrew Raycroft carry the entire workload? Nope, Cory Schneider would come up and get a second chance to break out.

And this year, he’s coming up having already been through it before. The kid is too big, too talented and too high up in the SKILL department to fail. He has a lot of confidence coming off the heels of a stellar AHL season and has a good team in front of him. That, combined with his skill, creates a perfect atmosphere for one giant breakout storm.***

Besides injury, other situations that create wonderful opportunities include inadequate performances by a non-elite starter over the course of a few weeks or any non-elite starter that loses five or more games in a row on a team playing above .500 hockey. Don’t discredit the impact of family or personal issues, either (J.S. Giguere).

Finally, just look at recent history. How many times could you weigh talent vs. situation and end up with an injury being the cause of a goalie breaking out? Chris and Steve Mason, Joey MacDonald and Scott Clemmensen all took advantage of their opportunity coming from another being injured. Very rarely does a break out come from straight up out-playing another goalie.****

So now that you know what questions you need to ask in order to figure out which of the parts be weighed more than the other, it’s time to decide what that is. Unfortunately, the truth is not so simple. It honestly doesn’t matter which category carries more value, because they both count for half of what is needed to succeed.

Many goaltenders have all the skill in the world, but lack situational awareness or readiness when that prime opportunity comes. They don’t turn it up a notch and they fail to raise their compete level. On the flip side, how many goalies have an amazing desire to win, an incredible compete level, but lack the talent to control rebounds effectively at the NHL level, heighten their reaction times or come up with the big save at the right time? And furthermore, how many goalies fall somewhere in between the two ends of the spectrum?

Therefore, this week’s lesson is simple. You can’t spell Opportunity without Unity. In order for a goalie to be successful in taking advantage of an opportunity and breaking out, they must show total balance and harmony with the two parts we dissected. Without one carrying its weight, the other will falter and the goalie will ultimately fail.

* You can’t look at stats alone. Sometimes it comes down to simply seeing it live or on video somewhere. Stats don’t tell the whole story all the time and this is not a formula that can depend solely on looking at stats. Do some research!

** Do not be fooled by the argument that Budaj’s defense was terrible. Even Andrew Raycroft had the wherewithal to slap together a sexy winning streak. Budaj’s problems literally stemmed from his inability to stay focused over a long period of time. He was confident at times, but once the first goal got past him, that confidence was shot and the performance went totally sour. Don’t believe otherwise…I watched every single game he played last year.

*** Raycroft is merely cheap insurance, so all Schneider has to do is win a few games early to be set on a perfect path to break out until Luongo returns. That means he’ll play almost all of the games and post very solid numbers, maybe even get a few shutouts along the way.

**** Besides Pekka Rinne taking over Dan Ellis, Craig Anderson was probably the closest to overtaking a legit starter just by simply out-playing him last year. I wouldn’t count Hiller because a lot of Giguere’s problems were personal and mental, not technical. And if not for the end of the 2007-08 season, Mathieu Garon probably would have taken over Dwayne Roloson for good. Simeon Varlamov would be the next one, but he did it in the first round of the playoffs.